Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Numbers and Notes -- Slip Sliding Away

The monthly Gallup Poll is out and there’s bad news aplenty for some of the trailers. It’s hard to say who received the biggest hit, but John McCain has to be very uncomfortable at the moment. He trails Giuliani 44-20 and his percentage has been steadily eroding for three months. Given the historical tendencies of the GOP, Giuliani’s clear front-runner status has to make McCain very nervous. Romney can take heart in the RNC polling by the LA Times, which found him the favorite among insiders, although with only 20%. Even there, McCain is not well situated, getting support from only 10% of the politicos.
Over in the weekly Rasmussen Poll, Giuliani’s lead has been about 15 since mid-February, with McCain consistently under 20%.

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The latest Quinnipiac Poll has PA solidly for Rudy, with him leading Clinton 51-40. This is exactly the kind of polling data that can cause Republicans to line up behind him. It’s one thing for Democrats to get excited about their chances in Western states like CO, NV, and AZ, it’s quite another for Republicans to be favored in PA and NJ.

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Mitt Romney has plans to launch an early media blitz to introduce himself to America. This seems like a good idea in that most Americans have never heard of him. On the plus side, it means his relatively low poll numbers can jump up if he can make a positive impression. On the other hand, he’s third in NH polling with 17%, and since he was Governor of Massachusetts, those people do know who he is.

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On the Democratic side, Hillary is still leading, with sizeable leads in NY and CA polling. Obama still has plenty of time to make a move, since many people still don’t know who he is. As I pointed out earlier, in head to head matchups, Hillary is over 50%, which means votes have to be taken away from her.

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The Clinton campaign has decided to organize women behind her under the banner Women For Hillary. Since 54% of the voters in 2004 were women, there are worse ideas. The danger, of course, is that this could turn off men. I know what you’re thinking – how can Hillary turn off men more than she already does? But I think it’s possible and that in a close race, men could be suspicious of Hillary’s agenda and shift to a male candidate.

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I haven’t mentioned John Edwards yet, even though the title of this edition of N&N refers to him as well as McCain. The latest Gallup Poll is quite unpleasant for him, as he dropped from 13% to 9%, while Al Gore, on the strength of his Oscar appearance, went from 14 to 18%. Having half as much support as someone who is not running is never a good thing. He still does well in head to head matchups with Republicans, the problem is in his own party. The high point of his week was being called a faggot by Ann Coulter, the High Priestess of Hate. Edwards is actually trying to use the evil anorexic’s attack to raise money – actually featuring her on the front page of his web site. When you’re depending on the nastiness of strangers, your campaign ain’t all it needs to be.

2 Comments:

Blogger samG said...

The resiliency and strength of Rudy's numbers may be a good sign in one respect. For a New Yorker who is 'pro choice' (I hate that expression), pro gay rights, pro gun control, twice divorced, 3 times married, and estranged from his kids to be the front runner in the party of 'family values' (another expression I hate) might suggest the decline in influence of the evangelical wing of the Republican party.

7:59 AM  
Blogger samG said...

To say nothing of being a die hard fan of the Evil Empie.

8:00 AM  

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