Local Zeroes and Other Math
While the dictum “all politics is local” has been as far from the Democrats strategy this year as can be, they are well-positioned to take advantage of some non-national situations in creating a congressional majority.
In yesterday’s notes, I mentioned that the sorry state of the Ohio GOP will likely bring down Mike DeWine, as well as turning over the state house to the Democrats. The Ohio Congressional delegation could also have a major shift because of GOP disrepute. There are three Republican incumbents locked in tight battles – Deborah Pryce is actually trailing by 12 in the only poll we have in her district, but that is only one poll. Add Bob Ney’s former seat to that, where the Democrat has about an 8 point lead and there could be a huge turnover there.
New York has a different situation. There the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Elliot Spitzer is headed for a landslide victory of historic proportions, with numbers as high as 71% in recent polls. This can’t help but leave the Republicans a bit dispirited and this is reflected in some House polling data. Incumbents Peter King, Sue Kelly, John Sweeney, and Randy Kuhl are locked in tight races. Tom Reynolds is caught up in the Foley mess
and is down by 15. The Democrat has a double-digit lead in an open Republican seat. That’s six GOP seats in that state, which, if the Spitzer (and Clinton) landslides depress the GOP vote, could well turn over.
If you think about the Democrats problems in Presidential elections, you get a good picture of what the Republicans are going through in the House. Democrats have been in a position of defending a number of electoral votes, while finding very few Republican states to go after, so they have to spend time and money defending PA, NM, IA, MN, MI, WA, OR, and VT, while the Republicans get to focus on OH and FL. At the moment, there are almost no Democrat-held House seats in danger. This means the GOP is playing defense all over the place and with this many tight races, it seems highly likely (in the mathematical sense) that many of them will turn out badly for them. Anything can happen and three weeks is a long time, but things look better every day for a Democratic takeover of the House.
In yesterday’s notes, I mentioned that the sorry state of the Ohio GOP will likely bring down Mike DeWine, as well as turning over the state house to the Democrats. The Ohio Congressional delegation could also have a major shift because of GOP disrepute. There are three Republican incumbents locked in tight battles – Deborah Pryce is actually trailing by 12 in the only poll we have in her district, but that is only one poll. Add Bob Ney’s former seat to that, where the Democrat has about an 8 point lead and there could be a huge turnover there.
New York has a different situation. There the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Elliot Spitzer is headed for a landslide victory of historic proportions, with numbers as high as 71% in recent polls. This can’t help but leave the Republicans a bit dispirited and this is reflected in some House polling data. Incumbents Peter King, Sue Kelly, John Sweeney, and Randy Kuhl are locked in tight races. Tom Reynolds is caught up in the Foley mess
and is down by 15. The Democrat has a double-digit lead in an open Republican seat. That’s six GOP seats in that state, which, if the Spitzer (and Clinton) landslides depress the GOP vote, could well turn over.
If you think about the Democrats problems in Presidential elections, you get a good picture of what the Republicans are going through in the House. Democrats have been in a position of defending a number of electoral votes, while finding very few Republican states to go after, so they have to spend time and money defending PA, NM, IA, MN, MI, WA, OR, and VT, while the Republicans get to focus on OH and FL. At the moment, there are almost no Democrat-held House seats in danger. This means the GOP is playing defense all over the place and with this many tight races, it seems highly likely (in the mathematical sense) that many of them will turn out badly for them. Anything can happen and three weeks is a long time, but things look better every day for a Democratic takeover of the House.
posted by Barry Rubinowitz at 9:32 AM
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