NUmbers and Notes: Obama-McCain Predictions

I haven’t done much analysis of the numbers during the campaign because, frankly, others have done the job better than I could have, If you aren’t reading fivethirtyeight.com, you’ve missed a lot in this election season. But I figure I should toss in my two cents worth on the elections, so here goes.
Unlike two years ago and four years ago, this election lacks a lot to analyze deeply. It’s not going to be close on the Presidential level, and the Senate races are, for the most part, pretty easy to peg as well. Still, the question of how big the Obama victory will be is still interesting. The magnitude of this victory has been amplified by the economic crisis, the abysmal McCain campaign, the horrid choice of Palin, and the money differential between the campaigns, which is huge. The Obama campaign has also made the victory larger by running the best campaign in modern history, designed to take advantage of every break, creating organizations of volunteers in nearly every state, much to the consternation of the Clintonite wing of the party (as opposed to the Dean wing), which believes in focusing all your efforts on the states you need to win. That failed them in the primaries and the biggest story of this election may ultimately be the rebirth of the party in regions where Democrats had been buried recently. We have Dean and Obama to thank for that and one has to hope Howard Dean gets the respect and praise he deserves in the wake of this huge win.
Obama starts with the 252 electoral votes Kerry won – all of them are safely his. He has sizable leads in Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, which total 21 EV among them, which for those of you who are arithmetically challenged, makes for a total of 273 – sufficient for the balloon drop and hundreds of cars to be overturned in Detroit.
So now the question is how big will this be? Let’s travel around the map:
Highly Likely Wins:
VA (13 EV): This state seems to be tightening a bit, but even in the closest of polls (4 points), Obama is over 50%.
NC (15 EV): The polling data has it very close, but Obama is way ahead in early voting. This is one of the states where the immense black vote turnout has made things difficult for pollsters – exactly how big will it be? I think as big as possible and it’s why I put this state in this group. I also think NC is a state where the nauseating campaign run by McCain-Palin, with talk of “pro-American” voters and guilt by association has worn very poorly among independent voters.
FL (27): Of the last ten polls in FL, Obama was ahead in 9, with the tenth tied. There is no reason to believe McCain is about to win here.
OH (20): The last 12 polls here have Obama ahead, with margins from +4 to +10. It took a while, but Ohio finally came in line with PA. In fact, due to all the effort the McCain campaign spent in PA, he may actually come closer there than in OH. He ain’t winning either.
NV (5): The last poll to show McCain ahead here was in September. There have been 16 polls since that time, only one of which has the margin less than 4 points. This is also one of the states in which Republican votes may be depressed by early voting results, as the loss of VA, NC, PA, and OH will not leave the marginal McCain voters much reason to leave their homes, rather than sedating themselves.
If you’ve been counting, that leaves us at 353. I would be surprised if Obama goes under this number. On to the real toss-up states:
IN (11): This state is too close to call, but it’s starting to look like it’s drifting toward McCain. On the other hand, of the four most recent polls, two are tied, one has Obama up one, and the fourth has McCain up 3. The fly in the McCain ointment here is that Obama has a far superior ground game in this state and that could overcome a slight McCain advantage.
MO (11): Like the 2006 Senate race, this is a flat out guess. This is a tough state for the Dems to win, but MO is never wrong and since we know who is going to win, why would they land on the wrong side of this? Polls seem to be giving McCain a slight edge recently, but too small to really withstand the ground game.
ND (3): Another toss-up and the late burst of advertising by Obama tells you it’s close enough for them to win. And, like NV, GOP voters could decide to stay home after early results depress them.
NE (1): Nebraska, like Maine, awards its EV by Congressional district, as well as overall. The CD which includes Omaha is very much in play. This has never happened before, so it’s hard to believe it will now, but this is a unique election and the wave could roll over Nebraska.
The “Super-Duper Landslide” States:
GA (15): In the immortal words of Deep Throat “follow the money” – along with ND and AZ, the Obama campaign has tossed a late bucket of money into GA. It’s a long shot, but there are those two Insider Advantage polls, the first had Obama up by 1, the second had McCain up by 1. A huge black vote here could provide the upset. Add Bob Barr to the mix and disgruntled Republicans could vote for him and give it to Obama.
AZ (10): Anyone else surprised at how many EV Arizona has? This time it’s not just late Obama money we get to follow, it’s late McCain money too. Losing is one thing, being humiliated is another. I will be surprised at this happening, but like GA, it’s possible. Again, it could be over early enough to depress the vote here.
MT (3): Sort of like ND, with a little less favorable polling data. McCain has a 4 point lead here, but again, enthusiasm may wane late and the Dems will turn out the vote for Gov. Schweitzer in any case, so there is a surprise possible here.
If Obama wins all of these votes, he’s at 407. I’m going to say he wins one of IN and MO, ND, and, just for laughs, the NE EV. That leaves him at 368.
I’ve been wavering on a popular vote prediction. I keep expecting it to be in the five point range, with a little traditional tightening leaving it there. I’m starting to drift upwards a bit, thinking that the polls have been underestimating the black vote and that there will be some small loss of GOP voters in the western states. I would be more confident of the latter if there weren’t two right-wing propositions here in CA to pull the religious right loonies to the polls. I’ll call it 52-45, with Obama not only getting more votes than anyone ever, but setting a record in that stat which may not be broken for 30 or 40 years.

Is It Over?

Today, reports surfaced that the McCain campaign has pulled out of Michigan, canceling all media buys and stopping sending out mailers, while moving most staff to WI, OH, FL, and other more hospitable states. Considering that MI was a close state in ’04 and that Obama had shown some weakness there because he hadn’t campaigned during the primary, this is a very bad sign, to put it mildly. Based on current polling data (and there’s a ton of it) McCain is in extremely bad position, somewhere in the Dole zone.
What has caused this dramatic shift? First, the economic problems have put the focus on the area where McCain is weakest. Second, Sarah Palin is beginning to scare people. Third, McCain’s campaign suspension stunt looked foolish and desperate. And fourth, and maybe biggest, the debate went really badly for him.
Now the punditocracy felt it was at worst a tie, but on an issue by issue breakdown, they seemed to think McCain did better. The MSNBC nitwits, led by nitwit-in-chief Chris Matthews, felt that Obama had spent too much time agreeing with McCain, while McCain, smartly, never agreed with Obama, even when he had the same position. Matthews, with that senescent point of reference he specializes in, pointed out that Richard Nixon did that in his debate with JFK and that didn’t work for him. Now no one remembers that except Chris, and that wasn’t the key to that debate anyway. The key to that debate was Nixon sweating and seeming uncomfortable, while JFK looked cool and calm. Those who listened on the radio – yes, people did that then – thought Nixon won. So too in this debate – it wasn’t about individual answers, it was about what the demeanor and attitude of the candidates was. Remember, both candidates will almost certainly reinforce support within their own party. The key audience is the independent voters and the moderate edges of their own parties. I like to call them the “Kumbaya Voters” – they believe everything could be solved if the politicians were less partisan and just got along.
Every time McCain smirked during an Obama answer, his disrespect offended the Kumbaya voters. Every time he said “you don’t understand” to a man who clearly did, he lost votes. And every time Obama agreed with something McCain said, before modifying it slightly, Obama was the living embodiment of the bipartisan candidate they wanted. That McCain refused to ever look at Obama (which Matthews and company seemed to endorse) was also an insult which these voters noticed. Every poll following the debate showed that independents thought Obama won and his positives have increased while McCain's negatives have increased since then. While Obama looked calm, cool, and Presidential throughout, McCain came off as hostile and condescending, and frankly, more than a little crotchety – never a good thing for an old man.
Tonight is the VP debate, eagerly awaited by all fans of politics, as well as all fans of comedy. The punditocracy will emphasize the expectations being low for Palin. Frankly, they’re too low. At this point, after her pathetic performance with Katie Couric, any mistake, fumbling, or general show of ignorance, will merely confirm the expectations. She has to be nearly perfect tonight. If I was coaching Biden, I would have shown him the Obama-McCain debate, pointing out every McCain smirk and saying “don’t do that – or even smile, when she’s speaking”. And never say “you don’t know” or “you don’t understand” – be respectful and let her hang herself. All comments about the other side should be a reference to the McCain-Palin ticket, the stupider the comment by Barbie, the more it should be tied to McCain and Palin. The debate is not about Biden, just don’t make anyone notice you instead of her.
So is this race over? There’s a month to go and that’s a lifetime in politics. At this point though, it will require something huge to change the momentum – something McCain can’t do himself, since he’s already tried so many things. Settle in and enjoy the ride.

Why-O, Why-O, Why-O?

Why is Barack Obama behind in Ohio? This, to me, is the most interesting question of the election at this point. For the last week he has been trending upward nationally and strengthening his position in a number of states, yet Ohio is still in the McCain column. To be fair, Michigan has been a bit of a laggard for him as well, and Pennsylvania has tightened up, but Ohio is the one state in that region where John McCain is ahead, and that seems strange. Republican economic policies have hit OH hard. The Ohio GOP is in disrepute. Dems control the governorship, the legislature, and the US Senate seats. Yet somehow, McCain is ahead there. I freely admit that I thought Obama would have little trouble in Ohio, given the conditions I just stated, so I am thoroughly confused by this state of affairs. This has been a tight state in every Presidential election, with the Republicans in far better shape as a party than they are now, so why is McCain running better than Bush did?
The only answer I can come up with is the primary. While, for the most part, the Democrats have come home – although Obama is running behind where he should be in some states among Dems – they weren’t the only ones who saw the anti-Obama ads during the primary. Perhaps the ton of money poured into OH and PA has had a negative effect among Independents. McCain has led among them in OH, and still does. Perhaps that is the residual effect of Clinton’s poisoning the well for a month. The debates will be Obama’s chance to get these people on his side, or at least even things up among them, which should be sufficient for him to win there. He can win the election without Ohio, but it’s a lot easier if he has it.

The Fundamentals of Our Economy

John McCain said, infamously, “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”, then, when people mocked the ridiculousness of that statement, tried to do a dance about how he meant how wonderful our workers were. Of course, every time McCain opens his mouth on the economy, he immediately puts his foot in it, most recently by declaring he wouldn’t bail out AIG a day before the Bush Administration decided to do just that, forcing him to back off that stance. As McCain said months ago, he is not “well-versed” on the economy. Which is a pretty amazing admission, considering that he was the Chariman of Senate Commerce Committee – you know, commerce, like buying and selling stuff. So apparently the GOP cared so little about government oversight of the economy that they made an economic ignoramus chairman of the committee responsible for that job -- and Johnny did a heck of a job.
What are the fundamentals of our economy? Why do some people you see on CNBC and FOX Business say things like McCain did?

The plusses of our economy:
GDP is high and growing, albeit slowly
Productivity is high
It’s really big, therefore we export a lot of stuff and exports are growing, thanks to a weakening dollar
Like AIG, we’re too big to fail

The minuses of our economy:
Negative balance of payments
Huge budget deficits
Mounting national debt
The lowest savings rate in the developed world
Mounting personal debt
A pension and health time bomb set to explode in the next decade or so
Rapidly rising inflation
A banking system in disarray

Most of the plusses are less than thrilling, although if all you focus on is the stock market and the profitability of American businesses you own stock in, you could be pleased by the economy. As long as people can afford to buy beer, the McCain family will be able to own six houses and 13 cars.
The minuses have been building for years. The tech bubble of the nineties masked a long-term decline that has finally come to a major disaster following eight years of corporatist government based on the theory that the government should do nothing but help the rich and that bigger is better. The negative balance of payments has been rolling for decades. We import more than we export and in the long run, that is not a sustainable thing to do. How long a run it takes is hard to say with an economy our size. If someone who has $10,000 in savings spend $1,000 more than he earns each year, he’ll be introuble pretty fast. If someone with a million in the bank spends $10,000 more per year, he won’t live long enough to worry about it. The budget deficits started in the Reagan years, took eight years off based on the tech bubble and the increase in the top tax rate and relatively high capital gains taxes during the Clinton years, and exploded under the profligate spending and ludicrous tax policies of the Bushistas.
Regarding the last two, during the Reagan years, when previously unthinkable budget deficits were mounting, the right-wing economists came up with a new theory to explain why they weren’t really so bad – they considered the deficits as a percentage of GDP. It’s an interesting concept, which sort of worked when the Clinton years, coupled with the dreaded tax increases, evened up the books. In theory, a steadily growing economy should, in good times, take in the money needed to catch up with earlier deficits. That is, unless Republicans are in charge and cut taxes in good times and keep them low. This is economic stupidity of the highest magnitude, as tax cuts should be used as a stimulus and if they are always low, then you can’t cut them when needed. Of course, that is merely logic, and Republicans are averse to that sort of thing. As for the balance of payments, this country has been reluctant to even think about what they mean, for fear of reconsidering the concept of free trade being the most wonderful thing in the world. One thing logic tells us – you spend more than you earn and you get poorer. It may be significantly poorer, it may be insignificantly poorer, your quality of life may be temporarily better by having what you bought, but eventually someone has to address the idea of whether this is sustainable. No one ever has and I doubt anyone ever will.
The savings rate and the personal debt sort of go together. The housing bubble did a nice job of masking that, as people borrowed money on their ever-increasing home values to keep their lifestyle rolling along. We see how wonderfully that worked out. It is nearly impossible to fix this problem. Let me repeat that: it is nearly impossible to fix this problem. I apologize for the “nearly”, but I am reticent to use absolutes on economic issues. Our economy has been consumer-driven for a long time. If Americans start saving the way Asians or Europeans do, not only will our economy tank, the world economy could go with it, as U.S. spending has been the fuel for their economies as well. The problem is that many individuals are running out of money and running out of credit and that is scary.
I’ll skip the pension and health time bomb, we all know it is coming. One thing: many of us have been less worried about it because the economic assumptions which led to people thinking Social Security was going broke were based on extremely conservative growth numbers. They were always much lower than actual growth numbers and many of us felt that if those numbers turned out to be true, then Social Security was the least of our problems. They seem to be coming true and, indeed, Social Security is the least of our problems.
Inflation is a disaster for most Americans. Don’t believe the official numbers, food prices and fuel prices, the things you have to have to exist, are exploding. For people on fixed incomes, for people living paycheck to paycheck, this is a nightmare. Again, it isn’t a problem for Bush or McCain, so don’t look for the Republicans to worry about it.
The collapse of the financial sector has been in the news a lot, so you can read about that other places, although I’ll talk some about it next week. It has brought about the most startling political decision in American history, with a form of economic fascism being proposed by a Republican administration.
The fundamentals of our economy are not sound. The economic minister of India has suggested the IMF take control of the U.S. economy, as it does for other countries which have demonstrated no ability to manage it. Perhaps he’s right, for we are headed for bad times in any case, and the rest of the world needs to make sure they don’t go along with us.

Miss Congeniality

Back in 1964, when Barry Goldwater picked obscure NY Congressman William Miller as his VP nominee, Democrats came up with this bit of doggerel:

I’ve got a riddle and it’s a diller
Who the hell is William Miller?

So with the choice of an obscure Alaska Governor (is there another kind?), let me contribute this:

Iraq’s a mess, the economy’s failin’
And John McCain picked Sarah Palin??

Who is Sarah Palin? She is a right-wing icon: anti-abortion, pro-gun, pro-home schooling, in favor of teaching creationism, anti-stem cell research. She also has as little experience as any person who has ever run for national office. She is in favor of drilling in ANWAR and doesn’t think polar bears should be an endangered species. She doesn’t think global warming is man-made, but has created a commission to study its effects on Alaska.
She has already contributed perhaps the most surreal moment in American political history, as the Republican presumptive nominee for Vice President finished her first speech praising Hillary Clinton. If any of Hillary’s voters actually cross over to vote for her, they should be shot, since she is as far politically from Hillary as anyone could be, genitalia excepted.
What was the McCain campaign thinking? My guess is that this makes the base extremely happy and enthusiastic, as the religious right loves her. It does sort of blow a hole in their attacks on Obama’s experience. What they are likely to do is work on the concept of two maverick Republicans, ready to take on the establishment at the drop of a hat. McCain has a bunch of things where he went against the party leadership, from campaign financing to immigration, from global warming to Iraq strategy. She took power in Alaska by defeating a Republican, cleaned up the state government by firing a number of Republican appointees, and enforced ethics regulations while creating new ones. This willingness will be contrasted to Obama’s steadfast party regularity, never opposing the Democratic leadership, and will be referred to as demonstrating gutsy leadership, while Obama is just a follower. This argument could work with some independents who fear partisanship more than anything.
This morning, every Republican had the key talking point down pat – every one of them said “she is very well-qualified”, like saying it made it true. In reality, she is one of the least qualified VP candidates ever. Expect the Democrats to use the phrase “a heartbeat away from the Presidency” as often as possible. She will help in certain areas – religious, pro-gun parts of Midwest states, like western PA, eastern OH, and with her accent, she should play very well in rural MN. Being a MILF shouldn’t hurt her on the campaign trail either, although less makeup might be good – this is the one job where seeing a few more lines in her face could help.
Two weeks from now, she will be debating Joe Biden on national TV. Biden will have to be careful in how he handles her, but she has a lot of learning to do in a short time. It could be grisly. On the other hand, she has a good deal of TV experience, having been a sportscaster in Anchorage (her career goal was working for ESPN), so she should be cool under the lights.
Does this help or hurt McCain’s chances? I think it hurts, because his age and cancer history should make people a little nervous about such an inexperienced VP. I also think they don’t look good together. He makes her look too young, she makes him look older – and neither of those is a good idea. Still, it’s a more interesting choice than Tim Pawlenty, and it could serve as a good audition for the darling of the religious right and doctrinaire conservatives.
Fun Facts About Sarah Palin
1. She was a basketball player in high school. She played point guard in the state championship with a stress fracture in her leg – take that, Kerry Strug.
2. She and Cindy McCain were both in beauty pageants – so they should have no trouble smiling or waving for the next two months
3. She was runner-up in the 1964 Miss Alaska pageant – beating, I assume, two Eskimos and a moose.
4. She won Miss Congeniality is that pageant – the moose bit one of the judges, I believe.
5. Her talent in the pageant was playing the flute – one time, in band camp…

Numbers and Notes -- Iowa and Beyond

The Iowa Caucus entrance polls ended up being quite accurate in predicting the result, so that makes the underlying numbers very interesting to look at. Let’s look at the results.

Obama – A huge winner by any measure. Brought in new voters, both young and non-Democratic. This win, in a lily white state, will give him serious street cred among African-American voters – yes, he can get elected President. No troubling numbers exist, as those groups which weren’t his strength – older voters and low-income voters – are traditional Democrats who he can pick up in the Fall.
Key number: Among those voters who voted for change (52%), he won 51-20, which is devastating to Edwards and Clinton.

Edwards -- A loss is bad, a big loss to Obama on change is very bad. Strategy in NH is to go after Clinton and try to make it into a race between two different visions of how to accomplish change. How he executes that in tonight’s debate could be the key to his future.
Key numbers: Losing the change vote to Obama (51-20) and the union and low-income vote to Hillary was a two-front disaster. If he can get Hillary out, he could bounce back. This is easier said than done. Has become a “movement” candidate, which makes an early exit from the campaign far less likely. He lost the “Iraq war is most important issue” vote to both Hillary and Obama, getting just 17% there. Hard to figure that one.

Clinton – Iowa was a disaster, no matter how she spins it. This is clearly a change election and she is going to have trouble selling a Clinton revival as real change. The “Ready for Change” signs her people were holding up at her staged post-caucus address looked really desperate. Has to go after Obama while Edwards goes after her, leaving Obama free to be Presidential. A difficult task for Hillary. There is great irony in the way things have broken here. This compressed schedule and three-way race seemed set up for her. No time to eliminate someone and have the anti-Hillary forces coalesce meant that her money and organization would dominate, she would roll through February 5th and be the nominee before anyone could focus. Now she desperately needs time and a head-to-head race.
Key Number: 57% of caucus-goers were women, good for Hillary. She lost women to Obama 35-30...oops. In fact, she only beat Edwards by 7 among women. Her firewall wasn’t NH, it was her dominance in the dominant segment of the party, women voters. In spite of all the focus, in spite of Emily’s List’s economic and organizational support, she lost that demographic.

The other Dems are either irrelevant or gone – sorry to see you go, Joe and Chris, the race is poorer for your leaving.

Note: The older the voter, the more likely to vote for Clinton. The younger the voter, the more likely to vote for Obama.

Huckabee – Easy win on the shoulders of the evangelicals, who comprised an amazing 60% of the vote. NH will be a tougher case, but there is a bounce happening and a solid third there will certainly be considered a victory of sorts. The party establishment hates this guy and won’t go quietly.
Key Number: Only got 14% of the votes among those not born-again. This finished fourth behind Romney 33%, McCain 18%, and Thompson 17%. He must find a way to reach those voters or he won’t win anything.

Romney – The best-laid plans often fall apart worse than you could have imagined. In spite of spending $238 for every vote he got, Mitt finished a bad second. Now he must win NH or get branded a loser, heading for southern primaries where he is weaker. His “silver medal” analogy was cute, but finishing second in the Olympics isn’t great if you entered the favorite, and he did.
Key Number: Mitt only lost the male vote to Huckabee 29-26, women voted for Huckabee 40-24. Is it because women like Huckabee so much, or dislike Mitt? Well, I had a neighbor who used to refer to slick, well-dressed guys who would hit on her in bars with only a quick roll-in-the-hay on their mind and no intention to ever call her again as “striped shirts”. In the political sense, Romney is the ultimate “striped shirt” and women spotted that. You go, girls.

Thompson/McCain – Finished with a couple of hundred votes of each other, due to Thompson actually spending a week there. This is bad for McCain, as it might keep Thompson in the race through SC and McCain had to hope to pick up his support by then. Worse for McCain was the tremendous appeal Obama had for independent voters. If Obama takes too many of them away in NH, McCain could be in trouble and he must win NH. Whoever loses in NH, McCain or Romney, is in serious trouble.
Key Number: Of the 33% of GOP voters who thought illegal immigration is the most important problem, only 4% voted for McCain – this will be a big problem if he gets head-to-head with anyone. Not key, but interesting. Thompson got 16% of men, 10% of women Women don’t trust “striped shirts” or men with trophy wives.

Ron Paul – Got 10%, raised more money than anyone, was not invited to Fox News debate. Fascists don’t want to hear from Libertarians, so the house organ of the GOP has no interest in hearing from Ron.
Key Number: Paul got 21% of the voters under 30, third behind Romney’s 22%.

Rudy Giuliani – 3%? I know he wasn’t trying, but jeez. Don’t they care about 9/11 out there? Still, if McCain wins in NH, then Huckabee and Huckabee and Thompson run 1-2 in SC, this could make Rudy’s strategy look brilliant.

Mike Bloomberg – Huckabee’s big win is just what he needed. Obama, on the other hand, could be a problem.

Guessing Iowa

Predicting the Iowa caucuses is somewhere between hard and impossible, with all the reliability of predictions based on animal entrails. Still, punditry demands these kinds of things, so here goes.

Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton

A few days ago this would have been different, with Obama in third. The Des Moines Register poll changes that, not because I think it’s all that accurate, but because it has created a perception about the race which benefits Obama. Perhaps there will be, as the poll shows, a 33% increase in first-time voters, perhaps there will be a huge turnout of Independents and Republicans voting for Obama, but I wouldn’t bet on those two happening. Still, in politics, perception is reality, and the perception that he is surging late and has broad appeal could well lead to that happening or just adding a few points by other means. I still think Edwards wins the caucuses on second-choice votes, but Obama could win the entrance polls and that could really confuse things. The key is the margin – 30-29-28 is meaningless, 34-29-24 is very meaningful, with the story split between the winner and the loser. If it should be Edwards with 34 and Obama with 24, this race would be turned on its head. The other way around eliminates Edwards, and would give Obama a huge boost. A bad third by Clinton would puncture her inevitability balloon and leave this wide open. The Kucinich “endorsement” of Obama might be worth a point or two and that might prove significant. A significant Clinton win would depress far too many people to even think about.

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Paul

I included Paul because I think he’ll get to 10% and Thompson won’t. The question here is whether Romney’s all-out assault on Huckabee worked. If it didn’t, it is a major blow to Romney. The key number here is McCain’s vote total. If he gets to 15% or more, without really having a campaign in Iowa, it will be treated as a victory by the media and will get him a bump in NH. Big Prediction Alert....if McCain gets 15% or more and Huckabee and Clinton win, John McCain will be the next President. Even without the Clinton win, I wouldn’t bet against McCain if the other two happen.

But Can He Win?

For those of you who might be offended, the subject of this does not ignore Hillary, we all know she can win. The question many primary voters have to answer is “I like this guy, but I don’t want to waste my vote – can he actually win this, or should I go to my second choice?” I am going to attempt to answer this, based on polling data and my own spectacularly fallible ability to read the political entrails.

The “Not Really” Tier

Joe Biden: In a better political world, Biden would be battling for the lead in the polls, as he is far more qualified than those at the top. He is also far more experienced than the candidate in his party running on her experience. But he has little personal popularity and his unchanging poll numbers mean he has no chance. This is an indictment of our political system.

Chris Dodd: See Joe Biden, in spades.

Bill Richardson: No, but he has a great chance of being the VP nominee. He, Biden, and Dodd, would make a much stronger top tier than the one we have, but that’s the way things go.

Dennis Kucinich: Yeah, right. Won’t win but will keep cluttering up the race until the end.

Duncan Hunter: Will stick around until the first votes are counted or until his campaign funds run out.

Ron Paul: No, but he is on a mission and his supporters are marginally insane. Look for him to get a shocking number of votes in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Also look for the media to totally ignore the votes he does get.

Fred Thompson: His campaign never caught fire. While his polling numbers have put him in range of the others, he really doesn’t seem to have any sort of momentum or personal drive to get him over the top.

The Contenders - Democrats

Hillary Clinton: Hell yeah. Still the favorite to get the nomination, and still a marginal favorite to become President. The unfortunate assassination of Benazir Bhutto may actually help her...or at least the mainstream media thinks it will, and since they are on her side anyway, they will keep repeating it until the public believes it. Make no mistake, she is who the MSM wants to be President and they will do whatever they can.

Barack Obama: Yes, he can. But if his people aren’t troubled by his national poll numbers, they are fooling themselves. Has money and a national organization, but something may be missing here and a defeat in Iowa could be disastrous, depending on how big.

John Edwards: Yes, but he has to get the nomination and that’s the hard part. A win in Iowa (which I think is at least as likely as anything) and the race turns upside down. The MSM has done everything it can to marginalize him (haircuts? he’s late to rallies?) in an attempt to get a Clinton-Obama showdown, but they can’t ignore actual results. It’s not easy, but at some point Dems may focus on the big picture – he is easily the most electable Democrat.

The Contenders – Republicans

Mitt Romney – Is he the establishment candidate? Does turmoil in Pakistan hurt him (and Huckabee)? Has to be considered a genuine contender, but his plans have gone awry. It was a simple plan : win Iowa, win New Hampshire, narrow the race to himself and Rudy, then roll. Well, what if he loses Iowa and NH? They then head to South Carolina, far less hospitable for him. Has money, has organization, but without momentum, that Mormon thing could prove fatal. Even if he gets the nomination, not a great bet in November.

Rudy Giuliani – Was the leader, may still be the leader, but with everyone under 20%, leadership means little. The sleaze is starting to pile up, and much of his strength in the race comes from his electability, which, while a bit better than Mitt’s, is just not closing the deal. Failures in Iowa and New Hampshire could put him in a difficult position.

John McCain – Rudy’s worst nightmare. The single most likely winner in November, more and more of the GOP establishment are starting to realize that. His resurgent poll numbers reflect the softening of Rudy’s support base. A good third in Iowa followed by a win in NH could make him the top candidate. If Hillary seems to be the Democrats nominee, look for many to rally around the most likely winner – which is him. Will beat any Democrat except Edwards in November.

Mike Huckabee – Included in this group because he can get the nomination. He won’t get elected President. His lack of international experience, his insane tax policy, his extreme religious views, and the many weird things he has said, will overcome his likeability and crush his candidacy should he be the nominee.

No Trouble With The Nomination

Michael Bloomberg – He wants to run, a lot. But he’s not stupid and won’t spend the money without a real chance. A race where Huckabee is the GOP nominee gives him that chance. Not sure whether he would prefer Clinton or Obama on the Dems side, but against Hillary he gets the independents and maybe a third of the GOP, who would be scared by Huckabee. We’re a ways from him making his decision, and if the GOP can’t make a decision and it goes until the convention, that might kill his chances. Absolutely won’t run against McCain or Edwards.

Numbers and Notes: The Comeback Kid?

The Republican race has taken some bizarre turns in recent weeks, none more bizarre than this week’s. First was the Huckabee surge – fueled by religion and heavy doses of it, the “Christian Leader (his characterization, not mine)” surged to the lead not just in Iowa but in South Carolina, with the national lead within reach. Then, when the rocks were lifted and some unpleasant worms crawled out (pardoning rapists and condoning dog-killing by his son), suddenly Rev. Huck was not all that hot. Meanwhile Mitt “I am too a Christian” Romney started to build a little momentum nationally, while losing it in Iowa and New Hampshire. Rudy was undone by the Judith Nathan hidden security charges scandal, which combined a doubleheader of no-no’s for the GOP – infidelity and misuse of funds (either-or is the traditional GOP stance on those two). The Giuliani campaign is taking on water at an ungodly rate and could be on the verge of sinking. Fred Thompson has successfully put everyone to sleep and his numbers have drifted down.
And then there’s John McCain, who was supposed to have driven off in the old “Straight Talk Express” by now. He is closing in on Romney in New Hampshire and amazingly, while he isn’t even campaigning in Iowa, his numbers there (according to Rasmussen) have doubled since the Register endorsement. This is an incredible move up, but as with all Iowa poll numbers, it’s hard to know whether it translates into actual caucus-goers, or whether people were searching for a name that didn’t repulse them when they were asked, but don’t really have enough enthusiasm to leave their homes for. According to Rasmussen, he’s closed to within 4 points of Mitt in NH, thought to be safe for Romney. The endorsements have clearly helped him, as Republicans are confused and anyone with a firm opinion, even Joe Lieberman, may be listened to. A key to NH may be the Democrats in Iowa, as many independent voters in NH are planning on voting in the Democratic primary, but may switch if it looks like the Dems are done. Look for McCain to have his Hillary ’08 cap on while watching returns on January 3rd.
Oddly, while Romney seems extremely vulnerable at this point, his path to the nomination is the clearest of all. He’s made some peace with the religious right – “If you get down on your knees and pray, you’ll have a friend in the White House” was as clear a signal as he could give – and the business GOP would be thrilled with him. The path was simple, win Iowa (or finish a close second to Huckabee), romp in NH, eliminating Thompson and McCain, watch Rudy founder in SC against Huckabee, then turn to February 5th basically head-to-head with an underfunded and disorganized Huckabee campaign. It still could happen, but he could just as easily lose Iowa to Huckabee, then lose NH to McCain, SC to Huckabee, and then find himself going into the big states without a win and with the “can a Mormon win this?” question being the key topic of discussion.
The other question would be “if not Romney, then who?” The key again may be the Democratic nomination. If it’s Hillary, the GOP may turn to the most likely winner, who, according to polls, is no longer Rudy, it’s McCain. They would have to swallow his immigration stance, and his opposition to torture (and we can assume his strong opposition to torturing illegal aliens, also not popular among the faithful), yet he is strongly anti-abortion and pro-war and that puts him ahead of Rudy that way.
Or this could just boil down to who loves Jesus more and illegal immigrants and “Islamofascists” less – hard to say what these people are thinking.
As Elizabeth Edwards said: “Republicans scare me.”