The First Decision

A good deal of nonsense is written about VP choices. Pundits analyze about how a VP nominee can help win states, or voter groups, mostly ignoring how little they really do either. The last VP who can have a state victory attributed to him was Walter Mondale in 1980. And in the last 50 years, only Mondale and LBJ can be said to have determined elections by virtue of winning a state the candidate might not have.
What VP candidates can do is make those potential voters who have doubts about the Presidential nominee more comfortable. Remember, for most Americans, this is the first decision they see a potential President make, and if they are looking for a signal, this is where they get it. When the candidate is an insurgent type, running against Washington, the choice tends to lean toward someone with foreign policy credibility, as outsiders rarely have that. The history of this is that winning outsiders always pick someone everyone knows and has the missing experience the top guy lacks. So Reagan picked Bush, Clinton picked Gore, Bush picked Cheney – choices which confused people a bit, since Reagan and Bush had a nasty campaign, remember “voodoo economics”? Pundits were stunned at Clinton picking Gore, since they represented the same demographic and region. But the choices worked, as people knew them and were comforted by the expertise they brought.
This was why the choice of Joe Biden was right. There are many voters who have doubts about Obama’s experience, especially in foreign policy. Many more don’t know him and had he chosen someone they didn’t know either, it would have hurt. Biden, regardless of what you think of him personally, is a politician of substance, a heavyweight whose knowledge of the world is not questioned by anyone. To those waiting for a signal from Obama, this is the one they needed. Older people in particular know and respect Biden. I expect this, combined with the convention, to give him a big jump in the polls, moving him over 50%.
A word about Biden himself : I have serious problems with Biden, who has been a water-carrier for the banking industry in some very unpleasant ways and whose foreign policy expertise has not stopped him from being horribly wrong from time to time. But Biden, more than anything, is a real person. His personal tragedies have given him the kind of underpinning most politicians don’t have. A middle-class upbringing is a good thing, especially because his father had been wealthier before financial setbacks reduced him to a working stiff. After the death of his first wife and child, he chose to commute to work, taking the train to and from Washington every day, so he would be there for his kids. He still does it, like most Americans. Those people waving at him this morning as he left for Illinois were not just waving at a famous guy who was from their town, they were waving at a neighbor. Oh yeah, he knows how many homes he has – one

Clinton-Obama '08?

The idea of Barack Obama as Hillary Clinton’s running mate keeps popping up. My friend Dan Coen wrote about it at vicepresidents.com and thought, based on how nice Barack is being toward Hillary in debates, the possibility may be higher than previously thought. While discussing VP choices certainly seems premature, so is everything about this campaign, so I thought I’d jump in with my opinion. I would be shocked if Obama ran with her. There are several key elements which will go into Hillary’s choice (should she have to make one):

1) Controlability – The Clinton campaign is tightly controlled (and no one has ever not used the word “controlling” about her) and whoever the VP candidate is, he must be on message and careful. Obama tends to drift a bit, expanding on remarks when asked, and that is the last thing they will want. This also would kill Bill Richardson’s chances, as he is notable for running off at the mouth.
2) Stature – The VP candidate can’t be too big. Not size-wise, but stature wise. Hillary has enough trouble getting focus with Bill in camera range, she can’t have a VP who people think should be the President. Obama could well run into trouble with this one, being a more compelling speaker and a warmer presence.
3) Demographic usefulness – Historically, geography was a key component of VP selection. But in a more mobile and homogenized culture, with a candidate who was born and raised in Illinois, first lady of Arkansas, and represents New York, geography is meaningless. What isn’t meaningless is help where the Presidential candidate is weakest, or at least not emphasizing the weakness by doubling it. Hillary’s weakness is white males, and Obama does not help there. Certainly she doesn’t need his help for the black vote, as polls show her as more popular then him there.
Given these elements, Obama is a pretty useless candidate for her, unless it’s part of a deal to get the nomination. The obvious choice is Tom Vilsack, former Governor of Iowa, who left the Presidential race and endorsed her. He’s just experienced enough to be viable as a potential backup President and yet has no stature which would draw away from her. I would consider him the big favorite. The longer shot would be Wesley Clark – he’s been around the campaign track, has the military credibility which can only help a female Presidential candidate, enhances her anti-war cred, and is charismatically challenged, to say the least.