Rummy, You Did a Heck Of a Job

The departure of the worst Secretary of Defense ever – and Robert McNamara set the bar mighty high there but Rumsfeld cleared it – means it’s time to take stock of what his replacement means. Rumsfeld’s complete misunderstanding of Iraq, of the kind of Army needed to occupy a country, of the nature of the insurgency, and of the situation on the ground, reveled a stunning incompetence. That Bush decided to delegate so much to this arrogant nitwit speaks volumes about his leadership. That Cheney allegedly fought for his retention says a great deal about his judgment. I say allegedly, because I am less certain about all the stories that have leaked out since Rumsfeld’s firing. I’m a poker player and if you play, you know that when an opponent bets, the first decision you have to make is whether he has the hand he seems to be betting, or is just creating the illusion of that hand by betting at that point. Very often that decision comes down to the history of that opponent’s bets. So we have to ask ourselves, if the White House is leaking the information that Cheney and Rumsfeld are the losers of a power struggle, that Bush and by extension, Rice, are taking control now, is this real, or the story they want us to believe? I don’t know the answer – I usually believe nothing I hear from these people, but we do know that hatred of Rumsfeld was widespread. This is also good PR, since the American people clearly wanted Runsfeld gone. Maybe the leaks are true. In any case, good riddance to bad rubbish.
As for his replacement, Robert Gates – this is a stunningly non-Bushian move. Not only did he go outside the inner circle, he found someone who disagrees with Bush on major pieces of his policy. Gates believes we should be talking to Iran and Syria and try and get their help with Iraq. That’s right, chat up the axis of evil and their running dog. Has Bush had some kind of Road to Damascus moment? Is a radical change of policy in the offing? Is Bush actually going to listen to someone with a different point of view from his own? I’ll believe it when I see it. I think Gates’ job is to get approved easily, which he will, and to buy Bush time. It will be a few months until the Baker-Hamilton Commission (which Gates was a member of) reports. This report is being treated like it’s coming to Washington etched on two stone tablets by a finger of fire. Will Bush use the report to cover his retreat? Will Bush use it as a basis for a fundamental shift in how we deal with not just Iraq but the region? Or will Bush just try and run out the clock until the 2008 campaign starts, when he’ll say major changes shouldn’t be made during a campaign? That move would allow him to pass the buck to the next President and blame him for the inevitable collapse of Iraq. I think that’s where he’s heading, because stalling means things can turn around and victory will be possible (in his mind, if not the real world), and that he doesn’t have to pull back and watch the carnage which he set in motion happen on his watch.