Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Showdown Tuesday

It’s Showdown Tuesday – hey, I have as much right to make up a pointless name for the NC and IN primaries as the networks, who keep calling everything Super Tuesday.
So what is going to happen today? My prediction: Clinton wins Indiana by a bigger margin than Obama wins North Carolina – let’s say Clinton by 7 and Obama by 5 (or less). The turnout is very heavy, with a particularly large surge in Republican crossovers in NC. That surge will help Hillary, not just because of Rush Limbaugh, but because the National Right to Life organization has been robo-calling on her behalf in NC and IN.
What will all this mean? Look at the exit polls – unreliable as they are, the media will be all over them – and check the white vote for Obama. If he drops under 30% (a real possibility, if it’s close and chock full of GOP voters), there will be great hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth about his collapse in white support. This is the opening Hillary needs to try and convince super delegates that she is the one they should support. More about that tomorrow.

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