Sunday, September 21, 2008

The Most Confusing Number

There is a number that keeps popping up in state polls that has me confused. A very large number of respondents, 20-25%, keep saying they could change their mind on who they’re voting for in November. They aren’t undecided, they just aren’t sure about their decision. Not having seen any breakdown of this by candidate preference, these soft voters could well be the key, more so than those who are, at this relatively late date, “undecided”.
Which way are they more likely to go? The suspicion is that they are people who are just uncertain or uncomfortable with Obama, whether because of inexperience, or race. This doesn’t mean they aren’t leaning toward him at the moment, just that they might just change their minds given a reason to do so.
On the other hand, the economic mess we are in seems to be tipping the race toward Obama, as anyone who thinks another Republican is the cure for anything would have to be a complete idiot, and those people are already solidly in the McCain camp.


Post a Comment

<< Home